China Baby Diaper Market Analysis: Structural Shrinkage & Demand Shift Beyond Consumption Upgrade
From maternity wards to kindergarten, disposable baby diapers are essential supplies for families raising infants. Over the past year, however, China’s baby diaper market has undergone profound structural transformation, with total e-commerce sales reaching RMB 34.9 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year.
A deeper breakdown reveals that sales volume decreased by 11.4%, while the average selling price rose 2.7% to RMB 74.8. Most industry analyses attribute this phenomenon to consumption upgrade. However, the core driver is denominator clearance: many low-price brands have exited the ranking list. When low-cost product options disappear from retail shelves, the statistical average price naturally rises. It is not that consumers are actively willing to buy more expensive diapers; it is the elimination of low-end players that reshapes the transaction structure.
Even with national parenting subsidies covering over 20 million households, the market is still contracting. This is a structural adjustment rather than temporary market fluctuation. The updated national hygiene requirements for disposable sanitary products, implemented in July 2025, raised industry thresholds and accelerated market reshuffling.
Mismatch Between Marketing Highlights and Real Consumer Pain Points
A striking gap exists between product R&D direction and user feedback. 85.7% of newly launched diaper products take “breathability” as the core selling point, and the sales volume of breathability-focused diapers increased nearly 1.5 times year-on-year. Nevertheless, consumer reviews show reduced mentions of breathability. What users really care about are absorption performance, thin lightweight texture, and proper sizing. Among them, “proper sizing” shows the fastest growth in review frequency.
Breathability is relatively easy to realize by optimizing the top sheet nonwoven fabric, and simple to promote in marketing. In contrast, stable absorption, leak-proof performance and all-night dryness require systematic optimization of absorbent core, diversion layer and raw material formula. These core functions are technically challenging to develop and hard for end consumers to perceive instantly.
Consumers now evaluate diapers with apparel logic, focusing on fit and size matching, while many suppliers still market products based purely on material features. This disconnection creates communication friction between supply and demand. Super-premium diapers using skincare ingredients such as silk protein and biomimetic vernix are growing fast, but they only occupy the small high-end niche market.
Dumbbell Market Pattern: The Middle Tier Faces Survival Pressure
The market presents an obvious dumbbell-shaped structure. Mid-price segment products lost market share, while mass-market affordable diapers and ultra-high-end premium diapers both expanded their territory. The middle price band becomes the most competitive and risky zone, squeezed by insufficient profit margin and weak cost advantage.
Market concentration keeps rising. The top three brands expanded their combined market share, and high-end foreign brands regained market share. Some domestic mass-market brands have found a viable path: raising product pricing while increasing market share, proving mass consumers pursue value rather than merely low prices. Brands relying solely on price competition will struggle with thinning profit margins.
Category Structure Change & New Opportunity Scenarios
Baby diapers occupy a larger proportion of the hygiene category, mainly replacing reusable cloth diapers and disposable underpads. Pull-up pants maintain stable market share. The demand for large-size diapers rises while newborn diaper demand shrinks.
Diaper manufacturers do not need to compete with pull-up pants for “easy to wear”. The blue ocean lies in overnight scenarios, high absorption capacity and leak prevention. These scenarios put high requirements on absorbent core and leak-proof structure, bringing opportunities for enterprises with strong raw material and technical capacity.
Conclusion
Declining birth numbers form the long-term background of the baby diaper industry, but cannot fully explain the sharp sales volume decline. Higher regulatory standards, more sophisticated consumers and accelerated brand concentration push competition away from marketing slogans and toward measurable product functional indicators.
In the next stage of competition, brands that accurately capture the real demands hidden in user reviews will survive and grow. As a professional supplier of hygiene raw materials, Chuyang Hygiene provides high-performance nonwoven fabrics and functional materials, supporting diaper manufacturers to upgrade absorption, softness and leak-proof performance.